2018, A YEAR IN QUESTIONS

Have you ever heard of a “questionologist?” I had not, until I came across the word in a book by self-proclaimed question advocate Warren Berger. He posits that asking better questions can be a game-changer—sparking innovation and propelling us forward in our personal and professional lives.

This idea inspired me to frame up some thought-provoking questions for the year ahead of me. I’ve jotted down three queries, shaped by my observations about the significant cultural themes of 2017. I hope they will be thought-starters I can come back to throughout what promises to be an exhilarating year ahead.

 #1: CAN WE BE SMARTER ABOUT OUR SMART PHONES?
(Alt: Are Smart Phones Ruining Our Lives?)

 In 2017, a growing body of research illuminated the negative effects of our digital culture. We learned that we touch our phones a shocking 2,617 times per day, that the majority of Americans feel near-constant anxiety about how their social life stacks up (#FOMO), and that “phubbing” is weakening our relationships.

A steady stream of cultural influencers voiced concerns about the all-consuming powers of social media, with Deloitte dubbing mobile addiction a “real phenomenon,” and more than one of Facebook’s founders are publicly criticizing the platform for exploiting human psychology while weakening social bonds. This movement is perhaps best summarized by Justin Rosenstein‘s provocative statement that “all of our minds can be hijacked.”

People didn’t sit idly by as the realization set in that our screens make us less happy and reduce our brainpower. Rather, a growing awareness of the toll of near-constant scrolling, liking and swiping prompted cultural responses like the 72-hour tech cleanse, DIY hacks to help you use your phone less, and even the idea that you can become a “conscientious objector” to social media.

In the year ahead, I foresee the dialog about the potentially detrimental results of the “attention economy” continuing and reaching a broader audience. Even Facebook engaged this month, with the company’s first acknowledgment of the ways the platform can harm mental health.

In particular, I think we will see a growing number of people looking to companies and brands to help them re-evaluate the role of digital and social technology in their everyday lives. Undoubtedly, business leaders will continue to offer tech tools to connect with their customers. However, these efforts will be influenced by a cultural desire for more tech-free spaces – physical and mental.

This will include growing interest in tech tools that can help limit or modify existing habits and behaviors.

And, increased value placed on solutions that help bring some focus back to tangible experiences and relationships.  For example, travel providers predict the digital detox vacation will be a 2018 trend. And, Nokia punctuated this year’s holiday marketing campaign with the call to “Switch Off” for Christmas.

This tees up the first question to ponder in the year ahead:

How is my company suited to participate in the reappraisal of our smartphone-centric culture? How can we help people maintain the upper hand in their relationship with smartphones and create spaces for analog thoughts?

 WHAT LIES OUTSIDE MY FILTER BUBBLE?

 The events of 2017 also underscored the incredible power of technology (social media in particular) to divide versus unite.

Eli Paiser coined the term “filter bubble” in 2011 to describe the intellectual isolation that occurs when algorithms selectively tailor everything we see to align with what we already believe.

However, the concept experienced a true cultural inflection point this year, when it became clear that heavy filtered (and fraudulent) online content likely played a significant role in surprising election outcomes in both the U.S. and the U.K.

These revelations led to a productive cultural conversation about the ways that self-selecting algorithms have the potential to filter diverse viewpoints out of a growing number of aspects of our lives (what we watch, where we go, what we buy, who we meet, even how we get to work).

In the year ahead, I look for the movement to “break out” of filter bubbles to gain steam, with people actively seeking perspectives that challenge or at the very least broaden, what they already believe.

We are already seeing cultural signs of this including: public calls for more understanding (see article: “The Other Side is Not Dumb”), tech applications like Escape Your Bubble, and marketing calls for greater cultural acceptance á la this beautiful ad from HP.

From this space of recognizing and challenging bubble boundaries, comes a second question:

How can we help people better understand their own biases and cultivate a broad range of perspectives in their everyday lives?

 WHAT MAKES US HUMAN IN 2018?

 Before you write this last one off as coming out of some sort of phenomenological left-field, hear me out.

It is a safe bet that the word “robot” appeared in mainstream media content more in 2017 than in any prior year. In fact, Wired calls this the year robotsu really, truly arrived. We know that in the not-so-distant future machines will cook our meals, teach our kids, care for our aging loved ones and maybe even steal our jobs.

We also know that machine learning is quickly blurring the lines between what it even means to be a human or a robot. Over the past year, technologists have created algorithms that can design symphony halls, indiscernibly mimic human voices, and even pass college courses.

Futurist Kevin Kelly goes so far as to say that by 2025, technological advances will bring a convergence of humans and machines that will rework the planet’s sphere of consciousness.

In the year ahead, I would not be surprised to see a cultural identity crisis of sorts, as more of us stop to consider exactly what it is that separates humans from machines.

Thus far, I have seen this inquiry result in more interest in traits like creativity, imagination, and the capacity to empathize – all areas where humans still have (and are likely to maintain) the upper hand.

Additionally, I expect to see more cultural exploration—and possibly also governmental action— around the ethical implications of human/robot interactions.

I’ve also been pleased to see companies take a more active role in considering and investing in new educational formats that will help ensure that future generations will be able to stay one step ahead of our technological counterparts.

And so, a final question for leaders:

What am I doing to ensure that my company creates an environment where current and future generations can survive—and thrive—in a machine-powered world?

WISHING YOU AN INSPIRED YEAR AHEAD

There we have it. Three seemingly simple questions; very few concrete answers. I hope they will inspire unconventional ideas in my own work, and that they might spark new thoughts for you as well.

In the meantime, happy New Year, and best wishes for a fulfilling and productive season ahead.

There are fairly big changes on my horizon, as I prepare to move my family (dog included!) to Shanghai and assume a new leadership role. Please drop me a line if you find yourself in my new home city, where you’ll find me setting aside my mobile more often and looking to burst my filter bubble, while remaining ultimately thankful for the capacity of technology to help us build a better world.

Holiday Cheers for Inclusive Advertising

‘Tis the season for holiday ads. I always look forward to the parade of new efforts that dot the marketing landscape this time of year.

I love that the annual holiday “adstravaganza” has been elevated to a cultural event in the UK. (And, I am intrigued by the fact that some British marketers now monetize their holiday ads through the sale of related merchandise!)

These holiday messages surely exist to build brand equity and make the register ring. But taken together, I think they can also serve as a nice mirror that reflects back important themes on our current cultural landscape.

This year, I am heartened to see several ads (and their omnichannel extensions of course) veer beyond the more expected holiday motifs to celebrate moments of connection and inclusivity across differences.

From British grocery retailer Tesco, we see a celebration of the ways families from different walks of life and religious traditions participate in the shared ritual of the turkey roast. The spot, titled “Turkey every which way,” closes with the affirmation “Everyone is Welcome” at Tesco.

From Lego Australia comes a story of what can happen when Santa and the Asian martial arts archetype Sensei Wu team up to save Christmas. In addition to reflecting the spirit of imagination foundational to the brand, the whimsical tale delivers the charming sentiment that we are better when we work across cultural perspectives to “build together.”

From Sonos, the lively message that a shared musical celebration is just what is needed to transform a dull holiday gathering into an epic, multicultural and multigenerational holiday dance party.

And, from Samsung a poignant statement about the universal power of gratitude compliments a diverse group of building tenants who come together to thank the doorman who has gone the extra mile to make each of their holiday celebrations– from Diwali, to Christmas, to Chinese New Year –extra special.

In a year when the news headlines have been dominated by the many issues that divide us, it is refreshing to see marketers choose to hold up a cultural mirror that celebrates the potential for connection across boundaries, be they ethnic, religious, generational or otherwise.

Around the globe, our cities are diverse and becoming more so every day. Millennial consumers are particularly comfortable in this heterogeneous world and deserve credit for encouraging companies to stand up for inclusivity. Cheers to these advertisers who have taken note of this cultural shift and chosen to emphasize what unites rather than what divides this holiday season.

Happy holidays, and may each of you enjoy your own simple moments of simple connection amidst the year-end bustle.

Reflections From Berlin: The 4th Generation of Retail is Coming – Are You Ready?

“The future of retail will be led by sophisticated technology companies who happen to have a retail business.”

This quote lit a fire in me at a recent Consumer Goods Forum Summit presentation in Berlin, where pervasive topic of conversation was the fast-approaching 4th generation of retail (“4G Retail”).

Dan O’Connor, a fellow at Harvard’s Advanced Leadership Institute, spoke about the impending shift. In his conceptualization, the past 100 years saw three iterations of the retail model and the landscape today is being disrupted by a fourth new model.

O’Connor preaches that companies which function between innovation curves are best positioned for success. He cites Netflix as a great example, noting their ability to leverage one declining business model (the DVD) while anticipating and preparing for the next (digital content).

My key takeaway from his impassioned overview: in today’s retail environment, visionary leadership means optimizing for the world we know while preparing for the 4G Retail future.

Thinking about where retail has been helps us see more clearly where we are headed, so let’s dive in at the beginning!

The first wave, 1G Retail, was mediated through small, community-driven trade networks. In 1G Retail – which still accounts for 50% of the global retail pie – proximity, localization, and relationships are everything. This is the domain of the small family-owned shop where everyone knows your name and your buying habits.

Retail consolidation marked the beginning of the 2G Retail era. Starting in the 1960s and 1970s, large retailers (think: Wal-Mart) created new economies of scale by merging fragmented supply chains. These pioneers offered both convenience and cost savings, creating a juggernaut model that comprises 30% of the global retail pie today.

The rise of the online marketplace ushered in the third generation– 3G Retail. In this model, transactions take place on “platforms,” like Amazon or Alibaba’s Taobao. And, through what O’Connor calls “intermediaries” like Facebook, Google, or WeChat. Amazon’s IPO took place less than two decades ago. Yet, 3G Retail already accounts for at least 20% of global retail dollars.

Driven by real-time data analytics and rapid innovation (e.g., subscription pricing, mobile ordering, same-day delivery), the digital store model disrupted almost every aspect of the retail landscape. 3G Retail also prompted a shift in the very pace of the business, from a 52-week planning cycle to an environment that requires near-constant response to real-time developments.

 O’Connor dubs the next era 4G Retail or the age of “Real Time Retail.” In this 4G landscape, he predicts that a significant part of commerce will take place on a small handful of large digital value networks,” or digital platforms that serve a widening variety of functions including commerce, search, and social. Notably, technology companies and not traditional retailers will own these networks. In the U.S., we immediately think of Amazon, but around the globe, other platforms like Alibaba, Flipkart, and JD come to mind.

Tech innovation notoriously empowers consumers, and the Age of “Real Time” Retail will be no different. Imagine the 4G landscape like today’s retail on steroids – with interactions increasingly fast and frictionless. Transactions will take place on a few digital platforms, seamlessly along the spectrum between online and offline.

Same-hour delivery via driverless truck. Check. Personalized offers based on yesterday’s purchase behavior. Yep. A content-rich environment where everything you see is for sale? You got it. The 4G world will push the era of consumer control to its infinite boundaries, fueled by innovations around things like robotics, AI, driverless delivery, and 3D printing.

So now that we know that a 4G world is coming, what should we do about it?

 Here are three implications. In a 4G Retail World: 1. Data is table stakes 2. Retail platforms > media platforms 3. Success requires inventing new moments of consumer discovery.

#1: Data Is Table Stakes

In the 4G Retail future, the companies who control the data will rule the world. Success in the 4G retail world will require “big data collaboration” – both within organizations and across new (unconventional) manufacturer + retailer alliances.

This was illustrated in a recent Financial Times piece about Alibaba, which noted the company’s transformation into a growing “big data conglomerate.” Their massive data stream informs everything they do including merchant strategy, marketing, inventory management and even the layout of physical stores.

Despite the importance of data-driven insights, most traditional retail companies still face significant organizational and technical challenges to integrating and analyzing their own data. These issues compound when companies try to look further afield to think about how to work together with digital platform partners (e.g., Amazon) to optimize.

Getting their data house in order is an urgent matter for current retailers, since even simple data transformation efforts can take many years to launch.

#2: Retail Platforms > Media Platforms

My hypothesis is that in the 4G Retail landscape, the importance of large retail platforms will ultimately dwarf that of traditional media publishers. In fact, I am not sure the traditional standalone media content players survive in this future.

Think this sounds radical? Consider the similar tale of digital consolidation playing out in two very different retail markets, the U.S. and China.

In the U.S., Amazon is steadily reducing the need for online consumers to venture far from their site. They dominate commerce, with over half of shoppers starting every online shopping trip on the site and a full 90% cross-shopping Amazon even if they find what they are looking for on a retailer site. Amazon Prime Video is tripling their production of original content series over the next few years. Amazon Spark – curated retail in a social media format – looks poised to change the way we shop. In a retail future where consumers can shop, view content and socialize all within the Amazon platform, traditional publishers start to look much less relevant. 

That “single platform” future is even one step closer to reality in China. Alibaba-owned Tmall already controls more than 60% of the Chinese eCommerce market. Their multi-faceted Alipay is a true “killer app” that lets users complete a wide variety of tasks (from bill pay, to calling a cab, to getting a loan) right within the app. Like Amazon, Alibaba is aggressively expanding into digital media and entertainment with ventures including Alibaba Music, Alibaba Pictures and video-streaming site Youku. With aspirations far beyond simple retail transactions, Alibaba is building a vast “social commerce” ecosystem that supports almost everything someone needs or wants to do online.

This shift to a world where commerce, content and social life seamlessly merge on a single platform will require marketers to rethink the 4P’s through the lens of ecommerce retail platforms. (These are the future “Digital Value Networks” in O’Connor’s G4 framework).

New alliances between retailers, manufacturers and social platform companies will be critically important. Retailers and manufacturers will succeed by viewing shoppers as more than “trips and baskets” and by understanding their increasingly wide array of behaviors on digital retail platforms. In a G4 world, an Amazon shopper could be binge watching her favorite show via Prime Video, purchasing the outfit the main character is wearing, while conversing with her friends about the plot twist that just happened. How will your product or service get in on the action?

Savvy industry leaders will benefit from thinking now about which partnerships matter and how to develop these.

#3: Success = Imagining New Moments Of Discovery

In a 4G world, the retail storefront will be “everywhere,” and it will be up to brands and retailers to create new times and places to engage shoppers.

Critical questions for retailers and manufacturers will include: Where and when are my consumers that my product could be? How can we bring our product or service experience TO them, as they come to us less frequently? How do we offer a personalized experience to every shopper?

A number of retailers and manufacturers have begun seamlessly integrating the retail and hospitality consumer categories by rolling out “buy what you see” lines available for purchase at boutique hotels. This seamless, arresting experience is a picture-perfect example of the thinking needed to succeed in the G4 Retail world.

The spoils will go to the companies with the vision to imagine and create the retail landscape of the future – where every space and moment of technological interaction with a consumer is a potential storefront. What can you do to create a more seamless, simple connection to your customers today?

At The End Of The Day, So What?

We’re at the early, nascent stage of the 4G Retail Age. Today, promise yourself that you will be one of the leaders with the vision to co-create the new, exciting, ready-to-be-built world of 4G retail that’s coming, whether we like it or not.

UK: New application fills consumers’ baskets while they work, sleep, play…

Couple of weeks ago travels take me across the pond to the UK. While I’ll steer clear of adding my analysis of the Brexit vote, I am felt compelled to reflect on changing retail landscape in the U.K & implications here in the U.S. Specifically what was intriguing was the launch of an innovation aimed at making grocery shoppers’ lives a little easier.

Tesco recently leveraged the power of IFTTT (If This Then That) to create an automated shopping application. While it is powered by sophisticated backend technology, the proposition is simple: shoppers can join Tesco’s IFTTT channel to create “recipes,” or triggers that will automatically add items to their shopping basket at Tesco.com.  Yes, bots will do your shopping & take out the mundane tasks.

IFTT, eloquently described by Tesco Labs, is a “platform for joining together all your different online accounts to enable you to do clever things.”

Consumers sign up for a free IFTTT account and connect it to other applications (think: Facebook, Twitter, email, etc.). Registered users can then create “If, Then” recipes that proactively help accomplish a variety of tasks including controlling home appliances, staying healthy, connecting to loved ones, shopping smarter, or staying current. A tech maven can get an email whenever there is breaking news from their favorite publication. A health nut can receive a text anytime they fall short of their Fitbit goal. (Finger-wagging tone free of charge.)

Tesco’s channel offers a few recipes to get shoppers started. You can add milk on a certain day of the week, get an email if a product drops below a certain price, or even add burgers to your basket if it’s unexpectedly sunny.

Further, users are encouraged to create their own unique recipes. I can only imagine that these user-generated recipes will provide Tesco rich new territory for mining consumer insights and identifying unmet needs. 

This proactive technology is an example of the many “butler/bot” applications that are stepping up to manage the mundane and time-consuming aspects of people’s lives even when they are not actively thinking about them. (See: Google Alerts, Amazon Dash, and Brita’s wifi pitcher). Clearly, it has the potential to help consumers save time and money, and even make more satisfying purchases.

In addition to these consumer wins, I can’t help but think about what this application might mean for grocery retailers and their partners.

One innovation expert suggests that automation disrupts the typical shopping process (make a list, go to store, seek and select products) in a powerful way. It creates new imperatives to get a product into a shopper’s consideration set and basket long before they enter the doors of a store – if they ever do.

Conversely, as shoppers offload the job of shopping for weekly staples, they may enter retail grocery environments with more time and mind space to seek and sample novel products, creating new opportunities for brands and retailers to engage them.

Eventually, cart automation could pave the way for a “predictive grocery basket,” wherein algorithms would allow retailers to understand a shopper’s patterns and populate their basket with the items they want. While this may be a few years away, what a game-changer it will be if consumers can accomplish most of their grocery shopping without a single step, swipe or click.

For more on how Tesco is piloting technology to innovate the retail grocery space, read here.

Image Source: The Memo, 2016